Sunday 27 May 2012

Water treaties & diplomacy: India faces difficult choices on water

Take the water issueThe Indian Constitution has left water as a state-level subject, rather than making it a federal issue. Yet Singh's government has sought to dictate the terms of a Teesta water-sharing treaty with Bangladesh to West Bengal, although that state's interests are directly at stake.

Indeed, New Delhi first negotiated the terms of the pact with Dhaka - generously loaded in Bangladesh's favour - and then sought to present West Bengal with a fait accompli.

Respect for states and their interests is the essence of federalism. Yet, this inclination to ride roughshod over states harks back to the days when the central government was exceptionally strong.

Jawaharlal Nehru ignored the interests of Jammu and Kashmir and, to a lesser extent, Punjab when he signed the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, under which India bigheartedly agreed to the exclusive reservation of the largest three of the six Indus-system rivers for downstream Pakistan.

In effect, India signed an extraordinary treaty indefinitely setting aside 80.52% of the Indus-system waters for Pakistan - the most generous water-sharing pact thus far in modern world history.

In fact, the volume of waters earmarked for Pakistan from India under the Indus treaty is more than 90 times greater than what the US is required to release for Mexico under the 1944 US-Mexico Water Treaty, which stipulates a minimum transboundary delivery of 1.85 billion cubic metres of the Colorado River waters yearly.

Despite Clinton's advocacy of a Teesta treaty, the fact is that the waters of the once-mighty Colorado River are siphoned by seven American states, leaving only a trickle for Mexico.
The Indus treaty was negotiated in a period when water shortages were relatively unknown in most parts of India. Nehru did not envisage that water resources would come under serious strain due to developmental and population pressures.

Today, as the bulk of the Indus system's waters continue to flow to an adversarial Pakistan waging a war by terror, India's own Indus basin, according to the 2030 Water Resources Group, is reeling under a massive 52% deficit between water supply and demand.

Worse still, the Indus treaty has deprived Jammu and Kashmir of the only resource it has - water. The state's three main rivers - the Chenab and the Jhelum (which boast the largest cross-border discharge of all the six Indus-system rivers) and the main Indus stream - have been reserved for Pakistan's use, thereby promoting alienation and resentment in the Indian state.

This led the Jammu and Kashmir state legislature to pass a bipartisan resolution in 2002 calling for a review and annulment of the Indus treaty. To help allay popular resentment in the state over the major electricity shortages that is hampering its development, the central government subsequently embarked on hydropower projects like Baglihar and Kishenganga.

But Pakistan - as if to perpetuate the alienation in the Indian state - took the Baglihar project to a World Bank-appointed international neutral expert and Kishenganga to the International Court of Arbitration, which last year stayed all further work on the project.

The proposed Teesta pact suggests that India has learned no lesson from its experience over the Indus treaty. The Teesta originates in Sikkim state and meets the Brahmaputra in Bangladesh. The long-term interests of northern West Bengal, for which the Teesta is a lifeline, must be protected.

Water, as an indispensable resource that is increasingly in short supply, tends to raise emotive and politically surcharged issues. Singh's government has unwisely brought India under pressure by portraying Banerjee as the sole holdout on the Teesta treaty.

Seeking to up the ante by latching on Clinton's comments, Bangladesh foreign minister Dipu Moni has warned that Indo-Bangladesh ties "will take a huge hit" if India does not deliver on the Teesta issue.
India, which has just announced a decision to magnanimously write off $200 million of its $1 billion new loan to Dhaka, must continue to generously help Bangladesh - but on the basis of concrete reciprocity. India is already a party to a water-sharing treaty with Bangladesh involving a bigger river, the Ganges.

Its 1996 Ganges treaty guarantees Bangladesh minimum cross-border flows in the dry season - a new principle in international water relations. In fact, the treaty almost equally divides the downstream Ganges flows between the two countries.
In concluding the treaty, India climbed down from its long-stated position that it needed a minimum of 40,000 cubic feet of water per second of time ("cusecs") to flush silt from the Calcutta port. India settled for each side getting 35,000 cusecs of water in alternative 10-day periods during the driest period from March to May.

The treaty helped bury the hatchet over India's diversion of water through the Farakka Barrage to a Ganges tributary, the Bhagirathi-Hooghly, to help flush silt and keep the Calcutta Harbour operational during the dry season.

The treaty's complex water-sharing arrangement is pivoted on joint oversight of flows to help build mutual trust. And unlike the Indus treaty, which was brokered by the US and the World Bank, the Ganges treaty emerged without the involvement of a third party, despite a US offer of mediation.

Bangladesh and India are also likely to sign - without any third-party role - a Teesta treaty in what will be the world's first water-sharing pact of the 21st century.

Bangladesh insists it get half of the Teesta waters. Existing water-sharing treaties elsewhere in the world, however, do not come anywhere close to allocating half of all waters to the downstream state.

India has the dubious distinction of signing the most generous water-sharing pacts with downstream states, even as it has failed to get upstream China to even accept the concept of water sharing.

India faces difficult choices on water. Unlike Bangladesh, it is already a water-stressed country. Whereas the per-capita water availability in Bangladesh is 8,252 cubic metres per year, according to UN data, it has fallen to a paltry 1,560 cubic metres in India.

Indo-Vietnam Defence Relations

Nature of Cooperation
Defence relations between both countries took off in 2000 following the signing of a protocol. This move broadened and institutionalised defence cooperation and exchanges between the two countries. The 2007 Strategic Partnership agreement paved way for further deepening of cooperation in defence.

Defence cooperation between the two countries is founded on mutual benefit, commonalties of perception and strategic outlook. The changing geo-political configurations drive India and Vietnam to closely cooperate with each other. Vietnam is rekindling its older ties with India in the event of rising Chinese assertiveness in the region. Two incidents (cutting of cables of a Vietnamese exploration vessel and INS Airavaat incident in the South China Sea (SCS)) occurred last year that seem to influence closer and rapid cooperation in defence. India’s commercial project (OVL exploration) came under scrutiny amidst multiple sovereignty claims in the region. Thus India has a stake in maintaining peace in the SCS.

India and Vietnam defence relations are characterised by high level bilateral visits, training of personnel, assistance in defence production, sharing of intelligence and joint exercises.  A joint working group on terrorism was established in the framework of strategic partnership agreement.  Terrorism is a challenge for India where it is benefitting from Vietnam’s expertise in counter insurgency and asymmetric warfare. India and Vietnam are maritime neighbours having common concerns like piracy and security of sea lines of communication. At ADMM+ 8 meeting in 2010, amongst intensifying overall military cooperation, Defence Minister Antony laid special emphasis on bolstering naval ties through regular port calls to Vietnam. A biennial dialogue on security issues between home ministries of both countries has been institutionalised. In October 2011, both countries signed an extradition treaty.

Defence equipments of both the countries are largely Russian make allowing bilateral cooperation to extend further. India undertakes servicing and maintenance of Vietnam’s military hardware and naval ports. India also supplies spare parts to Vietnam’s warships, submarines and missile boats.  In September 2011, India has agreed to provide intensive training in submarine operations to Vietnam. The latter has reciprocated by providing permanent berthing facilities at Na Thrang port in southern Vietnam.  On account of its strategic location, the port paves way for a sustained Indian presence not only in the South China Sea; but also enables India to keep a check on vital sea lanes of communication in the region. India has great interest in the security of sea routes in the SCS given its economic interests and trade with Southeast Asia and East Asia.   It is believed that this move notably privileges India as no other foreign navy has been awarded berthing facilities beyond traditional locations.
Indian media carried reports of a possibility of equipping Vietnamese military with the BraHmos missile.  It is believed that the BraHmos aerospace, joint venture between India and Russia has shown interest in selling the fastest supersonic missile to Vietnam.  Reportedly, informal talks are in process. Should this move be realised, it would make significant value addition to Vietnam’s military arsenal.  Again, if the deal is struck, it would be for the first time that a third country to receive BrahMos.
Mutually Beneficial Relationship
India and Vietnam experience commonalities in their relationship with China, which saw further convergence of interests and strengthening of mutual defence ties
New Delhi looks at Vietnam as counterweight to China. Both countries are concerned with China’s rise, for India it is China’s increasing presence in the Indian Ocean and South Asia while Vietnam is alarmed by China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. Besides, China’s growing military might is also a common concern.

However China cannot be the sole pivot for India’s engagement with Vietnam. SCS has attracted attention from major powers for its strategic location and natural resources. A power vacuum exists in the SCS region. Keeping these developments in mind Vietnam is attempting to take things in its stride. Vietnam’s economic growth is impressive, making some analysts believe in its potential as a powerful player in the region. Given its history of victories in wars against powerful states, Vietnam looks at itself as an important power in the region. Vietnam would also want to match its economic prowess with military strength. India appears to be a suitable partner at this point of time, as military doctrine of both countries is defensive in nature. By ambitiously engaging with Vietnam, Indian foreign policy seems to be getting pro-active and opportunist.

The year 2011 saw significant bilateral visits and important developments.  The relationship is getting strategically responsive in recent times. Vietnam expects India to play a larger role in maintaining peace and stability in the region. For India, deepening defence ties with Vietnam would create a steadfast partner in Southeast Asia and accentuate the larger role it envisions through its Look East Policy. Vietnam is driven by medium-term security interest while Indian engagement is designed keeping long-term interests in mind. It is imperative that Indian efforts on Vietnam continue in future.

Meaningful and sustained engagement with the Southeast Asian region requires broad based involvement and in that regard defence cooperation is an effective tool. India’s defence diplomacy seems to achieve New Delhi’s strategic goals by engaging extensively with Vietnam - a pillar in its Look East Policy’.

Saturday 19 May 2012

nato and its relevance in present world

what is nato ?
North Atlantic Treaty Organization or NATO is an intergovernmental military alliance based on the North Atlantic Treaty which was signed on 4 April 1949. The organization constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. NATO's headquarters are in Brussels, Belgium,
its have 28 members which constitutes over 70% of the world's defence spending
Relevance of NATO
There may be no relevance of NATO to the 3rdworld countries like ours, but it is very much important to its member countries. Because it’s not just a military alliance to them, it’s much more than that
1
One clear purpose of NATO in the 21st century would be to keep doing what it has done so well in its first half century
2
NATO’s fundamental purpose after the cold war would shift from defending common territory to defending the common interests of Alliance members. As an alliance of interests, NATO
would be the vehicle of choice to address threats to these shared interests, wherever these  threats  reside


Monday 14 May 2012

shale gas - strategic game changer for india

what is shale gas?

shale is the common name for rock that once was a layer of clay or mud ,due to geological circumstances these layers were compressed into a fine grained sedimentary rocks, the gas which is trapped in the rock formation is called shale gas in terms of its chemical make up shale gas is  a dry gas primarily composed of methane


why its a game chnager for india

 So far India’s relentless efforts during the last 25 years to build pipelines to bring gas from Turkmenistan, Iran, Qatar, Bangladesh and Myanmar have remained pipe dreams. Renewable energy sources like ethanol and bio diesel, wind and solar are high on the national agenda, As recently as three years back conventional wisdom was that US will have a huge gas deficit and it has to import increasing quantity of LNG. In less than two years,  the US supply has changed from one of deficit to surplus. The sudden and unexpected development of shale gas has been a game changer  In India, shale deposits are found across the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and costal region according to preliminary estimates india's shale gas reserve may be larger then conventional gas reserves

challenges

availability of water and  environmental issues

shale gas operation would require large quantities of water for hydraulic fracturing process unavailability of water sources for the awarded block could pose logistic issues and put up additional cost   land acquisition would be a challenge. Land is the most precious resource in India now. Unlike conventional oil exploration, shale gas exploration is continuously mobile and moves from one spot to another, requiring more land for exploration.

Besides, there is the fear that the pursuit for shale gas would cause irrevocable damage to the environment as it involves pumping chemicals into rocks with water. It is not going to be as easy as it is in the US


Sunday 13 May 2012

nuclear iran and its implication on india & pakistan

India has consistently maintained that a nuclear Iran isn’t in New Delhi’s interests, for a number of reasons.

from india's point of view

1 One reason is that India, having been accepted as a de-facto nuclear power after the signing of the Indo-U.S. civil nuclear agreement, perceives any further proliferation in nuclear weapons as against both its own interests, and those of the wider non-proliferation regime of which it is now an active member.

2Second, if Iran crosses the nuclear threshold, India will find itself in a diplomatic bind with the United States, Israel and Gulf countries as it has strong relations with Iran. In addition, a nuclear Iran would become of increasing strategic interest to India’s regional rival, China.  And, while India would undoubtedly be constrained by expectations from Tel Aviv and Washington, Beijing could find ample diplomatic space to cut deals with the beleaguered Iranian regime
.
 3 It’s likely with all these issues in mind that India has largely supported the international community against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Since 2006, India has voted in favor of sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council on Iran in order to halt its weapons program and to pressure Tehran to help the International Atomic Energy Agency with its investigations.

4 It’s becoming increasingly clear that Iran’s steady progress towards a nuclear weapons capability won’t be halted by economic sanctions alone – India’s own experience is testament to this fact. Given Iran’s ambitions, then, it might be prudent for New Delhi to start planning for a world in which Iran possesses nuclear weapons

from pakistan point of view

a nuclear Iran might actually benefit India strategically. Sunni-dominated Pakistan and Shia-led Iran don’t always see eye to eye, and a nuclear Iran would mean Pakistan was flanked by nuclear powers. Pakistan has also traditionally been aligned with Saudi Arabia, while Pakistan’s support of the Taliban has ruffled feathers some feathers in Tehran. All this suggests that Pakistan may feel more constrained by a new nuclear-armed neighbor.

from iran's point of view
there’s probably a very clear lesson from the fall of the Gaddafi regime in Libya: nuclear weapons save authoritarian states from regime change


tips to cover dutt and sundaram for confused souls

i feel a book like dutt  and sundarm is must to cover eco part of the gs

the book is divided into 5 parts
start with 5th part ist which covers  india's trade n foreign policies
GATT ,WTO SEZ  INDIAN CURRENCY SYSTEM ,FINANCIAL relation between centre n state  do this part throughly
then jump on part 1st of this book which clarify the structure of the indian economy

and then move on 2 nd unit   planning and economic development  which clear your concept on industrial policies  globalization and its impact on india,
dont loo at the tables which are not up to date
suplement this book with economic survey

my book list for general studies


history - 1 bipin chandra india's struggle for independence+ spectrum and  old ncert of modern history ( you can download from this link http://downloads.ziddu.com/downloadfile/17288061/Modern_india_A_History_textbook_for_class_XII_Chandra_Bipan.pdf.html


2
geography new ncert of 11,12  with majid hussian india's and     world geography

3 for polity laxmikant

4 economy ncert + dutt and sundram

5 genear science ncert of 6 to 10 + from tata gs study manual
6 partiyogita darpan  for personalities in history very important for 2 markers download it http://downloads.ziddu.com/downloadfile/4924035/PratiyogitaDarpan_GreatPersonalities.pdf.html
well suplemented with an geo atlas n tata gs manual with arihant paper set

        importance of indian ocean

1 it is the third largest body of water in the world


2 containing vital sea lanes that help to feed asia's largest economies


3 sea lanes in the indian ocean are considered among the most strategically important in the world as more then 80% of world sea borne trade in oil transit through indian ocean choke points

4 indian ocean homes to continually evolving startegic development including the competition rise between india and china
potentail nuclear confrontation between india and pakistan

5 us intervention in iran iraq afganistan in combating islamist terrorism (as usa 5th fleet is headquatered in behrain  and use of island diego garcia as a major airbase) show impoartnce of indian ocean therefore all the world's power have deployed substantial military forces in indian ocean region


6combined task force 150 which tasked with countering piracy

rom gulf of oman to kenya is active in this region


china's aggresive soft power diplomacy transformed entire region dynamics